It was a perfect weekend for Wrexham, with a comprehensive win over Burton Albion pushing the Red Dragons closer to automatic promotion.
Wrexham took their time on Saturday, but eventually fired home three goals to secure a massive win against lowly Burton at the Racecourse Ground.
Elsewhere, Wycombe Wanderers fell to a 1-0 defeat away at Reading, opening up a six-point gap between themselves and Wrexham.
Wycombe’s game in hand could be crucial, with the Chairboys taking on Huddersfield on Tuesday night looking to close that gap.
But, regardless of what happens, it’s now advantage Wrexham in this enthralling promotion battle.
Wrexham’s predicted points haul wouldn’t have got them promoted in recent years
Wycombe’s defeat gives Wrexham a huge boost, and as per Opta’s supercomputer predictions, the Red Dragons are now 75.8% certain to secure that second placed finish and go up alongside Birmingham City.
It is predicted that Wrexham will end up with 88.74 points in total, which we will call 89 points to be generous and round up.
That points haul is more than Wrexham achieved last season in League Two (88), which makes it all the more impressive, but, historically, it wouldn’t actually be enough to make it out of League One.
| Pos | Team | Predicted pts | Promotion chance |
| 1 | Birmingham | 106.5 | 100% |
| 2 | Wrexham | 88.74 | 75.80% |
| 3 | Wycombe | 84.54 | 18.42% |
| 4 | Stockport | 81.62 | 3.02% |
| 5 | Charlton | 81.16 | 2.76% |
| 6 | Bolton | 75.53 | 0% |
Last season, Portsmouth won the league with 97 points, while Derby County went up with 92 points. Third placed Bolton achieved 87 points, meaning Wrexham would have finished third and had to deal with the play-offs in 2023/24.
Prior to that, Wrexham would have had to settle for fourth place in 2022/23, with Plymouth winning the league on 101 points, Ipswich claiming second with 98, and Sheffield Wednesday missing out on the top two with a massive 96 points.
Even in 2021/22, Wrexham would have been battling it out in the play-offs with 89 points. MK Dons finished third that year with the same haul, while the top two were Rotherham (90 points) and Wigan Athletic (92).
You have to go back to 2020/21 for the last time 89 points would have been sufficient to go up, and ironically, it would actually have had them level with League One champions Hull City that year.
- READ MORE: Wrexham players are dominating League One in a crucial metric, it could be key to promotion
Do Wrexham have the promotion race wrapped up?
Things are looking pretty comfortable for Wrexham right now, but it can all change very quickly. We see it all the time in football, and there’s no way that Parkinson will be taking it for granted.
Wrexham now have five cup finals to go, and they’ll be desperate to win them all to make sure they make it to the Championship and secure that historic, third successive promotion.
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Birmingham | 39 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 71 | 28 | 43 | 92 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 41 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 81 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 40 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 75 |
| 4 | Stockport | 41 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 74 |
| 5 | Charlton | 41 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 73 |
| 6 | Bolton | 40 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 62 | 57 | 5 | 66 |
All eyes will be on Wycombe tomorrow night to see if they can make up some ground. If the Chairboys lose against Huddersfield, Wrexham will quietly begin to celebrate.
But, there is still the looming threat of Charlton to consider, too. The Addicks are in good form, and their last two fixtures are against Wycombe and Wrexham — if the race is still open by that point, it would be a tantalising end to the season.