Wrexham are heading into relatively unknown territory next season as they prepare for an assault on the Championship — but will they merely survive, or thrive in the second tier?
Phil Parkinson’s men stormed to an historic third-successive promotion last season to book their place in the 2025/26 Championship.
It will be a fascinating change of pace for Wrexham next year, then, who will be competing in the second tier for the first time in 43 years.
In many ways, it’s hard to know how the Red Dragons will fare, or what their target actually is for next season. While sceptics suggest they will struggle to stay up, the more ambitious fans are dreaming of yet another promotion.
So, we took some time to figure out what kind of points tallies Wrexham will need to hit if they want to survive in the Championship, as well as midtable security and play-off targets.
How many points Wrexham will need to stay up next season
The first target for Wrexham must surely be to stay in the division next season. Indeed, survival would still be viewed as a success for the Red Dragons, even if most fans would love to see the club higher up the Championship table.
Looking back at the last five seasons, we worked out the average points tally that would more than likely see Wrexham stay up in 2025/26.
This season, Hull City survived with 49 points but only on goal difference, so we’ll take Derby County and Preston’s 50-point haul as the marker for that season.
| Year | Team | Points |
| 2024/25 | Derby County/Preston North End | 50 |
| 2023/24 | Plymouth Argyle | 51 |
| 2022/23 | Cardiff City | 49 |
| 2021/22 | Reading | 41 |
| 2020/21 | Derby County | 44 |
| Average points needed for survival | 47 |
In the season prior, Plymouth Argyle stayed up with 51 points, but the requirements have been lower in the years preceding that.
Cardiff survived with 49 points in 2022/23, while Reading somehow managed to remain in the second tier with just 41 points in 2021/22. The year before that, Derby County stayed up with 44 points.
Averaging that out over the five years, you get an estimated points needed for survival of 47 points.
How many points Wrexham will need for midtable security
One expert suggested Wrexham will aim for a 14th place finish next season. Again, if they can achieve that kind of midtable slot, it would be a massive achievement for the club.
This season, Watford landed in 14th with a total of 57 points, which is the same as Swansea City’s total in 2023/24.
| Year | Team | Points |
| 2024/25 | Watford | 57 |
| 2023/24 | Swansea City | 57 |
| 2022/23 | Bristol City | 59 |
| 2021/22 | Stoke City | 62 |
| 2020/21 | Stoke City | 60 |
| | Average points needed for 14th | 59 |
Before that, Bristol City finished in 14th with a slightly higher total of 59 points, while Stoke City grabbed that position in both 2021/22 and 2020/21, registering 62 points and 60 points respectively.
Averaging that out, to finish in 14th Wrexham will need to aim for 59 points.
Championship play-off target becomes clear for Wrexham
If we know anything about Wrexham, it’s to expect the unexpected. While a sensible and secure midtable finish would be the core goal for the Red Dragons, they’ll fancy their chances of going above and beyond that.
Looking at the past five seasons and the teams that finished sixth, we have Bristol City on 68 points this season, but that’s the lowest total in recent history.
In 2023/24, Norwich City bagged a top six spot with 73 points, while Sunderland needed just 69 points in the year prior to that.
| Year | Team | Points |
| 2024/25 | Bristol City | 68 |
| 2023/24 | Norwich City | 73 |
| 2022/23 | Sunderland | 69 |
| 2021/22 | Luton Town/Sheffield United | 75 |
| 2020/21 | Bournemouth | 77 |
| | Average points needed for top six | 72 |
2021/22 was a more competitive campaign, with Luton Town and Sheffield United both achieving 75 points to finish in the play-offs, while Bournemouth needed a massive 77 points in 2020/21 to finish in the top six.
Averaging that out, Wrexham are looking at an estimated haul of just over 72 points to finish in the play-offs.