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Supercomputer changes Wrexham Championship promotion chances after Derby County draw

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Wrexham met Derby County in a Championship fixture on Saturday but were unable to pick up the win, changing their promotion chances as a result.

Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac’s goal is to take Wrexham all the way from the National League to the Premier League.

After three promotions in a row, the North American duo are just one step away from the top flight.

Now that they are in the Championship, it has been reported that Reynolds and Mac want Wrexham in the Premier League by 2026/27.

But how likely are the Red Dragons to win promotion one season ahead of schedule?

Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds hold the Vanarama National League Trophy as Wrexham celebrate promotion back to the English Football League
Photo by Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images

Wrexham Championship promotion chances after Derby County

The second tier is littered with Premier League-level players and teams who, thanks to parachute payments, have money to spend.

So far this season, Wrexham have not been able to climb out of the bottom half, with their most recent clash a 1-1 draw with Derby County.

Prior to that game, the Dragons were predicted to finish on 57.74 points, had a 0.72% chance of winning the title, 2.20% chance of promotion, a 9.82% chance of promotion via the play-offs and 19.64% chance of suffering relegation.

However, after they were held at the Racecourse Ground, their chances of going up have decreased.

Opta now give Wrexham 0.44% chance of becoming champions, 1.44% chance of finishing second, 8.00% of promotion by winning the play-offs and 20.64% of being relegated.

An exterior view of the Racecourse Ground during Wrexham v Wolverhampton Wanderers U21in the EFL Trophy.
Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images

Wrexham could benefit from EFL rule change

Wrexham going four in a row, while it’s still early in the campaign, does not seem too likely, at least automatically.

Their best chance of promotion will be the play-offs, and on that front, they could receive a boost if they are still in the Championship in the coming years.

This is because the EFL Board have been discussing expanding the Champions play-offs.

Currently, 4th-6th place teams compete in the play-offs, but that could be expanded to include those who finish 7th and 8th.