Wrexham have done their part this weekend with a win over promotion rivals Stockport County, but the automatic promotion race is going to go down to the wire all the same.
A Jay Rodriguez goal was enough to seal a 1-0 win for the Red Dragons at the Racecourse Ground against Stockport, to leapfrog Wycombe Wanderers into second place.
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Birmingham | 36 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 59 | 24 | 35 | 83 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 74 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 37 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 71 |
| 4 | Charlton | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 49 | 35 | 14 | 66 |
| 5 | Stockport | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 65 |
| 6 | Huddersfield | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 61 |
The problem is, Phil Parkinson’s side have played one game more than Wycombe, with the Chairboys in action next weekend and having to play catch-up.
It’s too close to call at the moment in the League One promotion race, but a supercomputer has now offered its thoughts on the remaining fixtures and what the final table will look.
Wrexham predicted to miss out on top two by a fraction
Opta’s supercomputer has ran the numbers for the top teams in the division, and unfortunately, it could be bad news for Wrexham come the end of the season.
It seems Wrexham will gain another 12 points, essentially winning another four games from here until the end of the season and end up with 86 points (or 86.26 to be precise). Wycombe are expected to hit the same amount, meaning they will win another five matches (or gain 15 points from here on out).
| Pos | Team | xPoints | Title | Promotion | Play-off promotion |
| 1 | Birmingham | 104.52 | 99.94% | 100% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Wycombe | 86.26 | 0.02% | 47.98% | 51.18% |
| 3 | Wrexham | 86.26 | 0.04% | 47.78% | 52.18% |
| 4 | Charlton | 79.36 | 0.00% | 2.88% | 86.42% |
| 5 | Stockport | 77.86 | 0.00% | 1.00% | 80.08% |
| 6 | Huddersfield | 74.72 | 0.00% | 0.22% | 50.96% |
When we get into the thick of the numbers, though, it looks like Wycombe will just pip Wrexham to the punch. Wycombe have a 47.98% chance of automatic promotion, while Wrexham are coming in at 47.78% at the moment.
It would appear that the superior goal difference Wycombe currently hold over Wrexham will prove to be the difference.
If Wrexham are to end up in the play-offs, they may end up falling short of the mark there, too. The Red Dragons are given a 52.18% chance of going up via that route, but Charlton look like the team to worry about.
The Addicks have an 86.42% chance of promotion in the play-offs, while Stockport also come in at 80.08%, meaning Nathan Jones could be the happier manager among the current top six come May.
Wrexham will pray for a Wycombe slip-up before the season is over
If Wrexham are to miss out on promotion due to goal difference, it will be a bitter pill to swallow. But, it’s a problem of their own making, with the Wrexham forwards all struggling to make the required impact this season.
Of course, with momentum behind them and the advantage in the league table right now, the Red Dragons will be feeling confident of going on a run of form into this final run-in.
| Game | Wrexham | Wycombe |
| 38 | Lincoln City (H) – 29/03/25 | |
| 39 | Exeter City (A) – 29/03/25 | Shrewsbury (H) – 01/04/25 |
| 40 | Cambridge United (A) – 01/04/25 | Reading (A) – 05/04/25 |
| 41 | Burton Albion (H) – 05/04/25 | Huddersfield (A) – 08/04/25 |
| 42 | Wigan Athletic (A) – 12/04/25 | Stevenage (H) – 12/04/25 |
| 43 | Bristol Rovers (H) – 18/04/25 | Bolton (A) – 18/04/25 |
| 44 | Blackpool (A) – 21/04/25 | Charlton (H) – 21/04/25 |
| 45 | Charlton (H) – 26/04/25 | Leyton Orient (A) – 26/04/25 |
| 46 | Lincoln City (A) – 03/05/25 | Stockport County (H) – 03/05/25 |
The thing is, if Wycombe can match Wrexham every step of the way from here on out, they will end up getting promoted by the finest of margins.
While Wrexham would prefer to have matters in their own hands, they’re in the strongest position they can be at this moment in time having beaten Stockport and Wycombe in successive matches.
Only time will tell whether the supercomputer got this one right.