Wrexham’s fate will take a turn for better or worse this week without them even kicking a ball, as Wycombe Wanderers finally play out their game in hand on Tuesday night.
A successful weekend saw Wrexham add to their own points tally with a convincing 3-0 win over Burton Albion at the Racecourse Ground.
Meanwhile, Wycombe lost 1-0 to Reading, leaving a six-point gap between the Red Dragons and the Chairboys with only a handful of games still to play.
Wycombe’s game in hand now has slightly less impact on Wrexham, as Phil Parkinson’s men know they will hold onto second place regardless of what happens. But, here’s all the permutations attached to that upcoming game.
What if Wycombe Wanderers win vs Huddersfield?
Let’s assume the worst and think about what happens if Wycombe do win away at Huddersfield on Tuesday night.
That will close the gap between Wycombe and Wrexham to three points, with both sides having five games left to play, and 15 points up for grabs for each team.
That makes it a very nervous end to the season for either side, and Wrexham will know that they need to dig deep and take matters into their own hands by winning all their remaining games, ideally.
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Birmingham | 39 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 71 | 28 | 43 | 92 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 41 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 81 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 40 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 75 |
| 4 | Stockport | 41 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 74 |
| 5 | Charlton | 41 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 73 |
| 6 | Bolton | 40 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 62 | 57 | 5 | 66 |
Parkinson has told his players to stay focused now anyway, so very little would change in that respect. What it means mathematically, though, is that Wrexham would need to at the very least match Wycombe’s results until the end of the season.
One defeat for Wrexham, and a win for Wycombe, twinned with the slight advantage the Chairboys have in terms of goal difference, would swing things back in Wycombe’s favour.
Simply put, a three-point gap is not secure enough for Wrexham to feel at all comfortable.
What if Wycombe Wanderers draw vs Huddersfield?
A draw between Huddersfield and Wycombe would not be ideal for the latter, but it would at least minimise the gap ever so slightly.
Five points between Wrexham and Wycombe with five games to go would mean that the Red Dragons could secure promotion if they win their next four games, leaving the final game of the season to be far more relaxed.
Obviously, a lot will depend on how the games at the weekend go. Wrexham are preparing to play Wigan, and if they win that game, everything will feel a lot calmer going into the final four matches.
Essentially, a draw for Wycombe wouldn’t really be enough to put any significant pressure on Wrexham, with time running out to close the gap.
Wrexham will firmly be in driving seat if Wycombe lose their game in hand
Parkinson insisted Wycombe’s defeat was a bonus at the weekend, and he certainly won’t be counting on them doing Wrexham any more favours.
But, if they do lose to Huddersfield, Wrexham would be in dream land, frankly. That would leave the gap at six points heading into the weekend, but with goal difference still a factor, Wrexham would probably still be looking to get four more wins out of five to ensure promotion.
| Pos | Team | Predicted pts | Promotion chance |
| 1 | Birmingham | 106.5 | 100% |
| 2 | Wrexham | 88.74 | 75.80% |
| 3 | Wycombe | 84.54 | 18.42% |
| 4 | Stockport | 81.62 | 3.02% |
| 5 | Charlton | 81.16 | 2.76% |
| 6 | Bolton | 75.53 | 0% |
Three might do it, especially if Wrexham can reduce that goal difference deficit compared to Wycombe in the next couple of games.
A supercomputer suggested Wrexham will get 89 points this season, and that that would be enough to go up. If that’s the case, Parkinson’s men just need to win two and draw two of their final five games, which feels doable.
No matter what, all of this depends very much on Wrexham doing their own part of the deal and winning their games. And, there’s obviously still the likes of Stockport and Charlton Athletic to look out for, who are catching up to Wycombe quickly.
Wycombe losing their game in hand won’t hand Wrexham promotion on a platter, but it would make everything a lot easier and potentially help get things wrapped up a little quicker.